NIGERIA IS NOT ON THE BRINK OF WAR – IT IS ALREADY AT WAR
By Jonathan Ishaku
On May 29, 2025, traditional rulers in Benue State issued a 14-day ultimatum demanding that Fulani herders vacate the state’s farmlands and forests. This was not an isolated event. Just a year earlier, the Hausawa Tsantsa Development Association (HTDA), led by Kaltum Alumbe Jitami, issued a similar quit notice targeting Fulani communities in Hausaland in northern Nigeria. Back January 2021 a group led by one Sunday Igbolo issued a week’s ultimatum to Fulani to vacate Oyo State, or more specifically the Ibarapa/Oke Ogun region but in Ondo State, it was the state government’s decision to flush out all unregistered Fulani from its forests.
These ultimatum and actions reflect a very deep and disturbing truth: Nigeria is in the throes of war—with predominantly Fulani armed militias as the belligerent opponents. By definition, a state of war exists when there’s a conflict resulting in intense and systematic violence sustained over a prolonged time involving substantial number of combatants under a command structure. In term of intensity (the high-calibre weaponry, high fatality and destruction), time and organization, the herdsmen violence has surpassed the threshold of war.
Across the Sahel—spanning Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and into Nigeria—Fulani herders are entangled in a web of jihadist insurgencies, climate-driven migration, armed militancy, and retaliatory ethnic violence. What began as clashes over land and identity has escalated into a crisis threatening Nigeria’s unity, security, and national character.
The Fulani are admittedly both victims and aggressors—displaced by climate change and insecurity, yet it increasingly evident that they are the major instigator of aggression, land grabs, and participation in massacres. In return, they are being met with open hostility everywhere, thus the eviction orders, and armed resistance in some cases. The cumulative effect is the ticking time-bomb threatening to blow up the nation into smithereens.
To navigate this perilous moment, Nigeria needs more than stopgap security interventions or the endless appeasement to the Fulani. In the last two year alone, the Federal Good has created a Ministry of Livestock and inaugurated the Pullako Initiative to deal with Fulani end demands, yet the violence has continued unabated. Resolving the national problematic is beyond a single tribe, least of all the Fulani alone.
The present situation requires a bold, structural realignment of our collective national vision and policies. Below are five immediate steps that must be taken to halt the spiral toward national collapse.
Convene a National Sovereign Dialogue of Ethnic Nationalities
Nigeria has long postponed the need for a genuine reckoning with its multi-ethnic foundation. The time has come for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to convene a sovereign national dialogue comprising traditional rulers, ethnic leaders, civil society, religious bodies, and regional representatives. This should be an open forum—not limited by partisan or constitutional constraints—where long-standing ethnic grievances can be confronted honestly and resolutions forged through consensus.
The dialogue must include frank discussions on land use, Fulani integration, historical injustices, and federal restructuring. If ignored, these issues will continue to fester and erupt in violence. The goal is not to assign collective guilt to and ethnic nationality, but to rebuild trust, mutual respect and shape a new foundation for peaceful coexistence among all of Nigeria’s ethnic nationalities.
Legislate and Empower Community-Based Defense Systems
The Nigerian state has lost its monopoly on the use of force. In many rural areas, communities have no faith in the police or military to protect them given their past experiences. To fill this vacuum, the National Assembly must urgently enact laws to formalize and regulate community-based defense units.This is not a call for the creation of more ethnic militias or vigilante anarchy—but for a well-structured, state-overseen civilian security framework. These community defense groups should be trained, licensed, and coordinated with official security agencies to defend against external aggression while observing strict rules of engagement.
Furthermore, the law should define regulated access to ballistic defense tools for these vulnerable communities, particularly in high-risk areas of the Middle Belt and the Northwest. The present imbalance—where attackers are heavily armed and villagers are defenseless—is unsustainable.
Review the Leadership of All National Security Ministries, Agencies and Institutions in Nigeria
It is no secret that many Nigerians perceive the country’s security apparatus as biased, with a disproportionate number of top posts held by individuals from the very regions and primordial groups implicated in the current violence. This perception—fair or not—undermines public confidence and fuels distrust.To restore credibility, the President must initiate an immediate review of leadership across all national security institutions—including the ministries, army, police, NSA, DSS, civil defense, immigration, etc. Appointments must be based on merit, national representation, and proven capacity—not ethnic or religious affiliation.
Nigeria’s unity depends on security neutrality. When state security is seen as complicit or indifferent in the face of ethnically targeted violence, it invites community self-help and a descent into lawlessness.
Launch a National Arms Audit and Disarmament Campaign
Nigeria is awash with illegal weapons, many flowing from conflict zones across the Sahel. These arms empower non-state actors—from bandits to insurgents and the terrorists—while undermining state authority.
The Federal Government should establish a National Commission on Illegal Arms Proliferation, tasked with tracing the sources of illicit arms, dismantling trafficking networks, and offering a time-bound amnesty and disarmament program for armed groups. This must be supported by surveillance technology, border control reinforcement, and international collaboration, especially with neighbouring countries.
Equally important is the safe retrieval and destruction of confiscated weapons to prevent their recirculation. Without disarmament, peacebuilding efforts will be short-lived.
Demand for Apology, Accountability and Reconciliation from Fulani Leadership
Fulani socio-political organizations—particularly Miyetti Allah—must recognize that the era of unchallenged dominance is over. The days of silence in the face of violent crimes committed by elements within their community must end. Leadership comes with responsibility. Let Nigerians for the first time hear Miyetti Allah loud and clear apologizing for the horrors of its criminal minded members upon them. Let Nigerians hear for the first time a call by Miyetti Allah to its members to down arms and seek forgiveness and peace with other Nigerians.
It is time for Fulani leaders to openly acknowledge the pain and loss suffered by other ethnic groups, to distance themselves from extremist actors, and to seek forgiveness where necessary. This is not weakness—it is maturity and responsibility. No ethnic group can exist in isolation or above the law in a pluralistic democracy.
Reconciliation must be public, symbolic, and ongoing. Nigeria will not survive a zero-sum struggle for ethnic supremacy. Only mutual respect and collective accountability can sustain the nation.
Conclusion: The Hour Is Late
For too long, Nigeria has treated its internal crises as distant bushfires. Today, those fires are at the gates. What began as local grievances has grown into a full-blown national war of attrition—between herders and by the militant herdsmen and innocent civilians, tribes and states. Fatalities are mounting. Livelihoods are vanishing. Communities are arming for ethnic survival.
The choice before us is stark: reconciliation or rupture. A nation built on distrust cannot endure. A government that refuses to act decisively will lose its mandate to govern.
President Tinubu must act—now. He must summon the political courage to face uncomfortable truths, embrace transformative reform, and begin the long process of national healing. Anything less is a gamble with the soul of the republic.
Mr. Ishaku is a journalist and author specializing on interethnic conflict and terrorism.
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